Latest Rasmussen Poll Looks Promising For Romney

Not only does the latest poll conducted by Rasmussen show Mitt Romney leading Florida with 33% over McCain with 27%, but it gets even better when only conservative voters are polled, with Romney at 42%, almost doubling the next candidate, McCain, at only 22%. This is an integral stat, since only Republicans are allowed to vote in the Florida caucuses, unlike some of the other open primaries.

Looking at the issues specifically, here are the polling results:

Those concerned with the economy most - Romney 37%, McCain 33%
Those concerned with national security/war in Iraq most - Romney 31%, McCain 31%
Those who are concerned with immigration most - Romney 63%, McCain 7%

The poll also revealed Romney as the candidate that voters thought to be the most electable, with 76% saying they believe him to be somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. McCain was next in line with 68%. Interestingly, last week both were at 69%, so public approval of McCain has dropped and has risen for Romney.

So a bit of my own analysis here. Why oh why is John McCain dropping the polls? Hmmmm.... let's see ... I would guess that the number one reason is because ... hmmm, what could it be ... oh yes, because he's a filthy liar. Even CNN, who absolutely adores John McCain (and they will until he's got the nomination and then they'll turn on him as planned and help the Dems crush him) admitted that he's been lying this past week. Here's a clip:


McCain does anything but "straight talk". He lies, he flip-flops, he flips out, and he makes himself look like a complete tool in interviews and during public debates. He is a bitter individual that wants to win the White House to fulfill his own selfish ambitions and prove to himself that he's not an absolute failure (having lost in presidential races so many times).

Good thing that more and more people in Florida, and all over America, are seeing him for what he really is: a fraud, and not a genuine conservative. Romney is the only serious shot the Republicans have at winning the presidency and the only candidate who can mae the changes needed in America today.

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Romney - McCain Race In Florida May Not Be a Close As We Think

As we saw in New Hampshire with Hillary Clinton's surprise victory over Barack Obama (who was supposed to win by a 10% margin), polls aren't always the most accurate. Admittedly, though, they are fairly "on" most of the time. However, according to the ACT Blog article "A Problem in the RCP Average", Romney may actually have a bigger lead in Florida than the major polls are telling us. I have updated the numbers since the above mentioned article was written. This is the average of all the latest polls (taken from the site realclearpolitics.com), which is far more accurate than any of the polls on their own. On average you can see that Romney and McCain are virtually tied for the lead. I have updated the numbers since the above mentioned article was written.

	Rudy Giuliani	Mike Huckabee	John McCain	Mitt Romney
InsiderAdvantage*	16	15	24	26
SurveyUSA	18	14	30	28
Reuters C-Span/Zogby	15	10	31	28
Rasmussen	20	15	23	27
Mason-Dixon	18	15	26	30
Strategic Vision (R)	22	18	25	20
Herald/SPT/Bay9	15	15	25	23
RCP Average	17.7	14.6	26.3	26

However, polls are sometimes a bit misleading. Remember that many of these polls were not exclusive to Republicans only (so the Dems and Independents have their say in them too). The thing to remember is that Florida is not an open primary, so only Republicans can vote (not Democrats and Independents like in New Hampshire and Michigan). Unfortunately, most of the polls do not include polling results for JUST Republicans. However, a few of them did. The ones highlighted in blue below had separate results for GOP voters only. Observe how the average at the bottom changes in light of the new found results.

	Rudy Giuliani	Mike Huckabee	John McCain	Mitt Romney
InsiderAdvantage*	15.7	14.9	24.7	27.8
SurveyUSA	18	18	24	33
Reuters C-Span/Zogby	15	10	31	28
Rasmussen	20	15	23	27
Mason-Dixon	18	15	26	30
Strategic Vision (R)	22	18	25	20
Herald/SPT/Bay9	15	15	25	23
RCP Average	17.7	15.1	25.5	27.0

Obviously Mitt is winning according to these results, albeit only by a little bit, but keep in mind two things. One, the polls for McCain coming out of South Carolina with victory momentum were much higher, and have been eroding at a rapid pace with more people hopping off the Boldface Lie, uh, I mean supposed "Straight Talk Expess". Two, the results sway in favour of Romney when only two of the seven polls above are modified to include Republicans only. Imagine the difference if all of them were changed (evidently an even greater lead for him).

The funniest part about this little exercise is McCain's boldface lie, oh crap, I mean "straight talk" (I always do that) during the debate on Thursday. He told everyone, in response to a question about whether he was conservative enough to get the Republican support he needed, that Republicans have supported him more than Mitt Romney. BS! Evidently McCain isn't smart enough (or too old to use the internet) to look up the results from New Hampshire (where he won) that show Romney beating him by 5% (if I recall correctly, it could be 7%) among Republicans only, or Michigan where Romney had a significant lead over him (not just with conservatives but overall). Let's not forget Iowa, Wyoming and Nevada. Time after time Romney has beaten McCain if you remove Dems and Independents from the vote. But McCain has the audacity to full-out lie to us by saying that he has won more support from Republicans. Can anyone tell me if McCain is honestly on crack? I think he might need to change dealers. Like how does he get away unscathed by the media for saying the unprecedented amount of garbage that he does. Or how about him saying at the debate, when asked about his earlier comments on how he didn't think he was strong on the economy, something to the effect of "I never said I was weak on the economic issues". COMMON, PLEASE, DO YOU TAKE US FOR IDIOT JOHNNY BOY! This guy has been hanging out with Bill Clinton and Pinocchio a little too much. Just a couple weeks ago he said these comments (click here for a plethora of quotes to show that John was lying to the American public).

Well enough about McCainian ... Florida is looking good for Mitt. He's rising in the polls, he's got a good ground team there, and most of all, he actually has substance, class, and an action plan behind his ideas (unlike other people in the race). On to victory in the Sunshine State.

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Pre-polls Look Good For Mitt in the Sunshine State

Mitt Romney won Nevada by a handsome margin and then left immediately for Florida, instead of spending the night in South Carolina waiting for results from their caucus. Some criticized this choice, arguing that South Carolina would be the gateway to the south, but now it's looking like old Mitt was right after all. According to the latest Rasmussen Poll, Romney is leading in Florida by 5% with 25% of in the pre-polls, followed by McCain with 20% and Giuliani with 19%. In the next Republican debate I can guarantee that both McCain and Giuliani will go after Romney; especially Giuliani, since Florida will probably make or break him. Hopefully, though, Rudy won't make the same mistake that Fred Thompson did and only go after Romney, just as Fred only really went after Huckabee, leaving McCain unscathed despite deserving much criticism for his liberal past. A strong showing for Mitt in Florida (gold or silver could really set him up for great voter support on super Tuesday).

While I still have your attention, one thing that I really wanted to mention is something that Mitt said in an interview after he won Nevada, but only came fourth (although a very close fourth) in South Carolina. When asked whether he thought voters in the south would support him, he gave an astute reply. He basically said that voters in the south will support whatever good conservative wins the nomination for the GOP, but that he has proved that he can win the "swing states" like Michigan and Nevada. This is an excellent point. To defeat the Democrats, the GOP doesn't need a candidate that will only win the south (because they will most likely vote Republican anyway). They need someone who will win the states that are sitting on the fence, deciding whether to vote Democrat or Republican. This shows that Mitt is not just thinking about winning the nomination, but actually the white house, and demonstrates his contagious confidence and optimism. Plus during the past few days he has been talking a lot about why Clinton and Obama aren't what American needs. In my opinion, Mitt has just stepped it up a level and has his head in the right place - winning the presidency so that he can represent conservatives and change Washington for the better. This race just keeps on getting better and better everyday!

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The Return of the Romney, and the Bursting of the Huckabubble

According to the Insider Advantage/Majority opinion poll, Romney is leading in the Iowa polls, as 28% of voters were "very likely" to vote for him and only 25% of the same crowd would vote for Huckabee. Here is the link: (*Note - look at the second table on the bottom to see the results for "very likely" voters)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_GOP_Iowa_caucus_poll.html

Just like we've been saying for a while here at Canadians For Mitt, the Huckabee surge was just a fad, a one-hit-wonder if you will, and would fizzle away. It appears that this is happening earlier than we expected. Keep in mind that according to most polls, Huckabee is still ahead in Iowa, but his down trend will only continue as voters discover that he does not have the back to fit the burden of the presidency, as he is severely unqualified and the slimiest of all republican candidates.

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