Independents and Democrats Decide Early GOP Primaries

The funniest, yet disturbing thing about the race for the GOP nomination is that it might be decided by Democrats and Independents. Now I’m not talking about the effect that the liberal Mainstream Media has on the public, propping up the Republican candidates that they want and criticizing the ones they don’t (for their own benefits of course). I’m not talking about influence from these groups, but actually cold hard votes from them in open Republican caucuses. Interestingly, the first few “major” state primaries in the race are actually made up of decisively less Republican voters than most.
Rush Limbaugh said about this very topic, “Now, this is really fascinating, and it also illustrates how the little people actually knew before all these primaries began. All this hype about who has to win where and who has to win what, is meaningless -- except for what I said. You have Iowa, New Hampshire, two states that do not feature conservatives. The caucuses are a weird setup in Iowa, and, of course, New Hampshire anybody can cross the state line and vote, and among conservatives Romney beat McCain by seven points! It was with independents he won. Now, we're Republicans, and theoretically we're out there trying to nominate a conservative to run as president here, as close to one as we can get, and yet the guy who wins New Hampshire is going all over the board, and the guy who wins Iowa getting votes from independents, who by definition are not conservatives! This is why, folks -- this is precisely why -- McCain and Huckabee are feverishly trying to get Romney out now, as soon as they can, and this is why they are being vicious in their attacks on Romney.”

If it wasn’t for independents, Mitt would have actually taken New Hampshire by a comfortable margin. If only Republicans were voting for their Republican candidate, the results would have changed. Now Mitt goes into Michigan where the voting dynamics are completely unique. Here’s what is going on there (again, taken from Rush Limbaugh). “Michigan is the same. Now, the Democrats in Michigan, they got a little bit different problem because Michigan violated party rules and is running ahead of when the party wanted to, so Michigan's getting no delegates. The Republican Party is penalizing Michigan a little but not totally, so there are delegates at stake for the Republicans in Michigan. So Hillary is the only person on the ballot in Michigan. Nobody else is competing there. The Democrat Party in Michigan is urging people on the Democrat side to vote nobody. They don't want them crossing the aisle. They want nobody, because they're trying to get even with the party and make amends at the same time to try to get some delegates that can vote and count at the convention.” Despite this, if democrats see Mitt as a threat, they could go vote as Republicans for Huckabee or McCain, just to stop him. In a way, that’s why it’s good that, at the moment, Huckabee is looking so good in the media’s eyes ( because Michigan voters might perceive Romney as the weaker candidate and vote for him instead, just as they may have done for McCain in New Hampshire).

The key for Mitt Romney is to hold strong and do well until Super Tuesday when actual conservatives get to vote and represent the majority. This is why Limbaugh points out “that the states that allow independents and even Democrats to vote in their Republican primaries are not indicative of the Republican Party, which is why McCain and Huckabee have shots in them. McCain and Huckabee are winning these early states, where Republicans are outnumbered. It's not Republicans; it's not conservatives in majority who were electing Huckabee or McCain, so far, voting for them.”

If you look at Romney’s success with actual Republicans, an interesting trend can be seen. “Rich Lowry posted something interesting yesterday at National Review Online. He entitled it "The McCain Weakness." This is what he wrote: "This is it: Conservatives were 54% of the electorate [in New Hampshire] and McCain lost to Romney among them by seven points. When the race moves south, conservatives will probably be 75-80% of the electorate, and they will presumably dominate in closed primaries. But this is the thing: At the outset, it looked like the way the early states were stacked up would help Romney. But once Romney lost Iowa, they were stacked up to help McCain.”

The media keeps saying that Romney will be out with each in every state that he doesn’t win. It’s an absolutely ludicrous view. They’re saying this about Michigan, but they just finished saying the same thing about New Hampshire. The Mainstream Media might as well just come out and officially endorse one of the Democrats because that is exactly what they do, despite claiming to be “news” or “unbiased”. It is sad, however, that if these early states prove to take Mitt out, that he would go before ever getting to the states where as Limbaugh says, “a majority of Republicans, conservative Republicans are going to vote” and if this turns out to be the case “by Super Tuesday, Republicans might have as their two choices people that are not conservatives, I should say, and have their leads based on votes from Democrats and independents. Can you say "screwed?”

Now I don’t think this will be the case, and neither does Rush, but it is hilarious that the RNC allows the first few states to be ones ruled by independents and democrats. Even though in this race, no candidate currently has true momentum, this setup has the potential to create momentum for non-conservative candidates who don’t represent Republicans and destroy it for those that do! Mitt Romney will truck on, but unfortunately he has a much harder battle than the other less conservative candidates who benefit from these first few unusual, backward primaries. Fortunately, I believe that this battle is one that both Mitt and his supporters are both willing and able to fight.